Unlocking Change and the Power of the 3.5% Threshold
- indivisiblechicote
- Jul 16
- 3 min read
Updated: Aug 9
Have you ever wondered just how much collective action it takes to truly shift the political landscape? As activists dedicated to strengthening American democracy, it's a question that often crosses our minds. The answer, surprisingly, might be smaller than you think, yet incredibly powerful: the "3.5% threshold."
This figure, frequently cited as a measure of a protest movement's potential for success, emerged from groundbreaking research by political scientist Erica Chenoweth of the Harvard Kennedy School, in collaboration with Maria J. Stephan. Their comprehensive review analyzed over 300 resistance campaigns conducted between 1900 and 2006.
What they discovered was a compelling pattern: governments have rarely been able to withstand a challenge when 3.5% of a country's population actively participates in sustained, nonviolent protest.
Chenoweth personally clarifies that this 3.5% figure is a descriptive statistic and a "rule of thumb" rather than an infallible law. It's a powerful indicator, not a magic number that guarantees victory, but it offers a profound insight into the leverage that sustained, nonviolent movements can achieve.
For us as activists, understanding these practical subtleties is important relative to our goals for growth of the movement and participation goals that translate into large-scale political change.
In the meantime, the figure is a valuable tool as we continue working the 'long game' to buttress American democracy. There's a wealth of material on this topic, and we encourage you to explore the nuanced perspectives offered by well-sourced materials. We’ve offered some below.
So How Are We Doing?
The good news is, in the United States, we're seeing a significant surge in civic engagement and protest, indicating a growing momentum towards that transformative threshold. Based on calculations made before the massive June 14th "No Kings" national protest (which turned out an estimated 5 million participants!), the number of protests in the U.S. this year through May was well over three times that of the number staged through May in 2017.
What's even more encouraging is the nature of these protests. The research indicates that nonviolent movements are twice as likely to succeed as violent ones. This year, our collective efforts have largely embodied this principle: 99.6% of protests were nonviolent, with no injuries, arrests, or property damage incurred.
This commitment to peaceful action is not just ethical; it's strategically effective. You can delve deeper into the effectiveness of nonviolent protest and the 3.5% rule by listening to "Why Protest Works: The 3.5% Rule with Erica Chenoweth on a recent episode of We can Do Hard Things podcast (see the link below).
The 3.5% threshold reminds us that every call, every letter, every rally, and every conversation contributes to a cumulative power. It's not about individual heroic feats, but about the sustained, collective action of a dedicated portion of the populace.
As Indivisible Chico, we are part of this vital movement, building the numbers, fostering the engagement, and working towards a more just and equitable future for Chico and beyond.
Let's keep showing up, speaking out, and making our numbers count!
Informational Resources on the 3.5% Threshold
Key points:
Organization, strategic leadership, and sustainability are likely as important as large-scale participation in achieving movement success
Research has identified exceptions surpassing 6% participation that did not achieve its goals
Key points:
Thinking as ‘democrats’ and not as Democrats
More women involved in the movement increases success
How ‘showing up’ breeds defection and mutiny in armies
Why nonviolent resistance works
What the Declaration of Independence says about “the crimes of the tyrant”
Pay attention to the flickers of hope
Key points:
Most evidence suggests that large-scale, protester-initiated violence tends to push potential allies away.
